|" When the calendar turns to February, most racing people think toward the Autumn Carnivals in Melbourne & Sydney. I think of Oakbank and Warrnambool. Most racing people look toward the return of WFA gallopers, classy 3yo Derby & AJC Oaks prospects and speedy Blue Diamond & Golden Slipper contenders. I look to the stables renowned for producing hurdlers & chasers to get an insight into the geldings & hardy mares gaining fitness on the flat in readiness for the jumps season."|
Jumps Racing Assessments
Who Needs Them?
The assessments that I produce prior to Australian jumps races have proven successful since their inception 2 years ago. Interest has been generated from punters, trainers, AJRA members and jumps racing enthusiasts.
The unique factor about each pre-race assessment lies in the amount of detail provided about each individual runner. The comments provided discuss each horses jumps & flat racing history, wet track ability and staying prowess. These comments are invaluable for trainer, jockey, owner & punter alike.
Immediately below, I have included a sample of the comments I provided for Bright Spot prior to the 1998 VRC Melbourne Cup Day Hurdle. I have chosen Bright Spot, as he is a classy hurdler who excels at Flemington and given firm conditions, could be a strong contender in the 1999 VRC Grand National Hurdle.
Bright Spot T.Whitford Jamie Evans Jumps: 5-3-0-2-0
Good class stayer, best suited over journeys of 2500m+ on the flat. Winner of 10 events over a distance range from 1600-2500m (plus three hurdles over 3000(1) & 3200m(2)). Has an affinity with the Flemington circuit. Thoroughly schooled over jumps early in his career, but his form continued to justify Bright Spot racing in good class events on the flat. Dead heat winner of the Group 2 Queen Elizabeth Stakes (8/11/97-good-2500m) finishing level with Vita Man. Prior to that was beaten less than 3 lengths in the 1997 Geelong Cup and was also placed at Caulfield (11/10/97-2400m-good) behind Bonsai Pipeline in Group 2 company. Connections chose the correct venue (Flemington-2800m-good) and a talented rider (Ricky Maund) for Bright Spot's jumps debut. He was ridden patiently and finished an encouraging 3rd to Century's Fox & Academy Beau. Bright Spots flat form in mid 1998 was solid, and connections chose the spacious jumping nursery at Bendigo for Bright Spot to break his jumping maiden. He won very easily there (3000m-15/9/98-dead) beating Kit & Rapala by 8L. Not a Moonee Valley lover on the flat but, but was convincing in his victory over the quality hurdlers Tahbob & Leading Bounty (27/9/98-good-3200m). Went to Sandown (3100m-dead-11/10/98) and was unsuited by the small field & muddling pace cleverly set by Leading Bounty, finishing 3rd. Was 5/4 favourite that day. Will be far better suited at his favourite Flemington track today in the 1998 Melbourne Cup Hurdle and should find much more speed in the event which will suit.
|Why Jumps Racing?
On Easter Monday 1987, I was 19 years old. As an onlooker at the unique Oakbank course, I witnessed two dynamic wins. The Harry D Young Hurdle (now known as the Yalumba) was dominated in cavalier fashion by a 9 year old Zamazaan gelding called Doctor Sam. Later that day, the Great Eastern Steeplechase, over the gruelling 4950m journey, was won by a fine young steeplechaser, Spring Fortune. These KT Myers prepared jumpers won by a combined 25 lengths. After that day I was no longer an onlooker. I was a jumps racing addict.
After observing & punting almost solely on jumps racing for ten years, I commenced writing pre-race reports on all Supertab covered jumping events. These assessments were provided on a free trial basis to subscribers by facsimile or e-mail on the Internet. The assessments were received well as they proved to be accurate from a punting angle and there was an absence of specialised jumps racing information available in the marketplace. Most major thoroughbred racing ratings & information services still write off jumping races as "unpredictable" or "poor betting propositions". How wrong they are!
Due to the assessments being well received, over the last 2 years, I have supplied information, reports and selections to trainers and owners as well as punters. I have written articles for Practical Punting Monthly (PPM) magazine as well as the Australian Jumps Racing Association Journal (AJRA). You may like to visit my web pages that offer a range of jumps articles, information and selections.
The address is: http://www.cyberhorse.net.au/jumpguru
I view my work with the jumps racing assessments as a springboard into pursuing more jumps focussed written work with the media & race clubs in the sponsorship area. Please contact me if I can assist you with an independent opinion on a horse's form or prepare an article promoting your race club's upcoming jumping event(s) for inclusion on my web site on the Internet.
My e-mail address is: firstname.lastname@example.org
Jumps Racing Assessments
On The Punt
Intelligent people often ask me "Why specialise on jumping races ? It's too risky!" They comment on the cash they once lost when their selection - a certain victor - lost its rider at the last jump. It seems that punters have vivid memories about such spectacular losses. But those punters also tend to forget many less spectacular losses on the flat.
From a purely punting angle, the occasional mishap over jumps is no different to a galloper in a sprint race being slightly checked or blocked for a run and ruining all chance of winning. The mental angle of seeing a jumper lose the jockey (and accordingly your betting dollar) is far more significant than the regular sight of a sprinter on the flat being blocked for a run or caught wide in a packed field. Both have the same result for the punter!
The checks and blocked runs are not often significant in a long distance jumping event. Smaller fields and plenty of time to recover from a check, make jumps horses less likely to lose due to bad luck in running.
This is a balancing factor in favour of jumps racing that most punters ignore. Due to the potential "spills", jumping racing is viewed as a riskier punting proposition than flat racing. Successful jumps punters have proven this to be a fallacy.
Since the inception of my assessments, I have found the winner in my top 2 selections on 151 occasions from a total of 305 events. A $50 level wager on each of those selections has returned a profit of $2460. The longest run of events where we did not find the winner in 2 selections was 9. This has occurred once in 305 events. Check out the detail of these assessments here.
These are the superficial punting facts & there are no guarantees that such a high strike rate can be maintained. I place the biggest emphasis on the detailed comments provided in the assessments. The detailed information provided on all runners in each jumps race will ensure that you are able to make a fully informed wager over the jumps. This level of detailed information is unavailable from any other source in Australia.
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