|KozForm is Roman Koz, author of staking plan
articles in Australia's leading punter's magazine, "Practical Punting Monthly",
regular contributor to the Internet horseracing discussion group, "Ausrace", and
now part of the "Cyberhorse" team.
I specialize in three areas: one, backing well fancied runners with strong credentials against false favourites, two, backing true favourites and three, backing value horses that fulfill several of the "tricks of the trade" I have learned over the years.
Like most of you I am basically a small time punter who has learnt after 30 plus years of dedicated "burning the midnight oil"research and prolific punting that just breaking square is an achievement however that is not to say a profit cannot be made and this is where KozForm will help you. I believe it is an unrealistic approach to bet level stakes for the small punter:quite frankly, it is boring and who is realistically going to bet $5 every single bet with the expectation of winning $0.50 per bet.
Experience with many staking plans (some learnt THE hard way!!) has taught me
Target Betting is THE best staking method for the small, battling punter faced with
limited funding. KozForm will show you, step by step, personally if
KozForm revolves around six Grades of selection:Grades A,B,C,D,E and F with a Place Betting component within Grades D to F. It is imperative our staking, that is, how we outlay our money on each Grade, should take into account that Grade F selections will have the worse run of outs and less winners than Grade A selections.
The staking plan outlined below , which I will call "The Hundred Limit Staking Plan" (HLSP), not only takes into account the above scenarios but allows, YOU, the option of choosing your own units in accordance with your betting bank and thus keeps within your personal betting comfort zones. The HLSP is based on Target Betting, that is, it will attempt to win $X per race, which is a staking procedure known to most punters, however my approach has safety nets attached which will slow down a bad run from entirely eroding the betting bank.
The reason for the "Hundred Limit" in the title of this plan will soon be apparent but firstly let us start with an explanation of the Grades and their unit objectives per race remembering a unit is your choice and can be $1 or $10 or $0.10.
Grade A are my Best Bets with the objective 8 units per race
It is important to mention YOU have the choice of operating any or all of the Grade methods outlined. If you have no interest in roughies of any sort just ignore them. If you only want high strike rate selection concentrate on Grade A and B. The choice is always yours but for the sake of keeping honest records all figures presented on KozForm will be based on SuperTab dividends to allow the majority of subscribers to follow proceedings without chasing SP dividends that are not always provided in the dailies.
The punters who have tried Target Betting know what happens when a long losing run occurs:the bets skyrocket dramatically once past a certain point in the sequence. To offset the perceived runs of outs in each Grade, I have alloted each Grade a Divisor figure, which means when you are seeking X units you divide by this Divisor figure rather than the actual price.
In Grades A the Divisor is 2, in Grade B it is 3, in Grade C it is 4, in Grade D it is 10, in Grade E it is 20 and Grade F it is 40. For the Place bets in Grade D,E and F the prices are 3, 6 and 12 respectively. For instance, if in a Grade A bet we are seeking to win 60 units we would divide by the Grade A divisor 2 to arrive at our bet size, which is 30.
If this selection is priced at 6/4 the inexperienced Target bettors would divide 6/4 into 60 to arrive at 40 bet size. You can imagine how the bet size would rise if there were a series of such shorter price losers therefore this is why we use a static, unchanging Divisor initially. You will note I highlighted , "initially": I will explain why later.
In Target Betting the sought after objective must bear some relationship to the
Betting Bank otherwise when a long losing run occurs mental pressure forces the punter
towards irrational decisions. I have purposely used Units in my explanation so as to allow
you the choice of unit compared to your Betting Bank. It is my DEMAND that you defer to
your lowest units in the first six months of KozForm so as to
In horseracing NOTHING is set in concrete and we must always be prepared for the worst. I know this sounds negative but it is realism and the punt has a way of strangling the unprepared.
Earlier I mentioned "initially" when discussing Divisors. It is time I explained what happens when we find ourselves in a long losing sequence and why the title of this staking plan has the words "Fifty Limit" in it. The best way would by detailing a sequence of losers and showing what happens to the Divisor. Let's assume we are in Grade C and our Objective is $2 per race with the minimum bet $1 and bets are rounded down i.e. $4.25 becomes $4.
If we kept going the next bet would be 82+20+2 = 104/4 = $26 but that bet would take the losses over $100 and this is where I draw the line. At no stage do we want any divisor to lose more than $100 in a sequence of bets therefore we add the current divisor (4) figure to the current divisor and create a new divisor of 8. If another losing sequence occurs of just under $100 we again add 4 to the divisor therefore making the next divisor 12 and so on.
At this point you should consider what objectives suit your budget based on the example above remembering firstly that Grade C are my average selections (I expect most to be 4/1 and under) and secondly I would be shocked if I had 11 losers with my Grade C selections however expect the unexpected and double the losing run to 22 (I would be almost suicidal with a run like this but better to be safe than sorry). Make yourself a cup of something and sit down somewhere quietly with pen and paper and do some calculations using the unit amounts suitable to your temperament and capital.
In the initial stages of KozForm I am opting for safety first with a very clear objective of making small but STEADY profits without undue mental stress and damaging attacks on the betting bank. It is most important you realise this as the going will seem slow but the aim is to profit at the end of twelve months not twelve minutes!!
At some stage the option of a bolder approach where the losing amount per divisor can be extended could be entertained, or the divisor being lower or a combination of both however experience with new ventures at the racetrack decrees safety first!!
The safety valve of adding the divisor, as explained above, has the effect of dropping the bets back a fraction, and provides some relief from the torturous, full blooded attack on a losing run that has seen most attempts at Target Betting fail. The golden rule is whenever you are about to lose $100 in a series of losers with THAT divisor you just add the initial divisor for the grade to the current divisor. Keep that in mind at all times.
To those unsure contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org
with a list of selections (any sensible set) and I will guide you through or just follow
the published results as we go along. At first reading it looks complicated but I can
assure you it isn't
e-mail KozForm at email@example.com